When a statement is based on evidence and not on certainties, we are dealing with a conjecture. In fact, the verb to conjecture means to suppose, which is the opposite of knowing.
Examples of guesses in common situations
If I imagine something is going to happen based on my intuition, this idea is conjecture. The same happens if I have a feeling and from it I affirm that something is going to happen. Thus, all ideas that are not supported by objective data are, in some way, conjecture.
In everyday language we use conjecture very often. By saying "I predict that Madrid will win the league" I express a personal wish and opinion. Let's suppose that a manager of a Spanish hotel entity maintains that the tourist season will be very positive because there will be many English people who want to go on vacation to Spain, since the British economy will improve in the coming months. This type of approach is a conjecture, since in the idea that is presented there is no certainty. Consequently, what the manager thinks is unfounded and is nothing more than a probability.
In the field of law
In a trial, arguments for or against are presented, which must be accompanied by concrete and objective data. If the arguments that are exposed do not have the support of precise data, these arguments will be invalidated, since they are conjectures and not facts. A conjecture may be true, but it requires some kind of conclusive evidence to back it up.
Guesswork in math
Some mathematical ideas are presented as initially unsolved problems, also called conjectures. Thus, mathematical conjectures become riddles whose resolution seems unattainable. In other words, these are mathematical statements that appear to be true but do not yet have a rigorous proof.
Certainties versus guesswork
Faced with the doubt that accompanies any conjecture, there are certainties. To say that something is true or true implies that there can be no doubt about it. Scientific knowledge is the only one that has the purpose of making totally true statements. The truth of science is based on the contrast of hypotheses, the verification of the facts and, ultimately, on theories and laws based on objective and demonstrable data.
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