definition of probability

The probability it is the possibility that exists among several possibilities, that an event or condition occurs. The probability, then, measures the frequency with which a result is obtained when carrying out an experiment on which all possible results are known thanks to the stability conditions that the context assumes in advance.

The scientific study of probability, unlike what has happened with other mathematical questions (because obviously both disciplines are closely linked to each other), does not turn out to be a concern that goes back to antiquity, for example, times in which the Most of the great thinkers apparently occupied their thoughts with other more decisive questions for that time. So, studying and deepening about the question of probability, it can be said that it is rather a modern event.

The great ally of probability is the call probability theory, since thanks to what this postulates and maintains, is that human beings can anticipate some potential events to finally occur. The aforementioned theory is widely used and consulted by disciplines such as statistics, philosophy, mathematics and science, to draw conclusions regarding the potential events that occupy them.

The theory of probability is a mathematical model that deals with analyzing random phenomena; This implies the opposition with respect to the phenomena already determined, which are those in which the result of the experiment that is carried out, taking into account certain conditions, produces a unique and predictable result, which will be repeated the number of times it is done again, as long as the same conditions are respected.

For example, water that is heated to 100 degrees Celsius at sea level turns into steam: this is a phenomenon already determined. Meanwhile, the random ones, which are what probability theory deals with, can be done thousands of times under the same circumstances but will always result in a varied set of alternatives. A very clear example turns out to be the various possibilities and combinations that allow the throwing of dice when playing the general game.

Perhaps this that I explained to you sounds quite abstract for our daily life; Nevertheless, probability is absolutely immersed in our day-to-day life as an integral part of a given society and community, since in risk analysis and commodity trading, probability has an impact and vital importance.

To cite just one example, but which is very graphic, most governments, at some time, have made use of probabilistic methods to attend to a future scenario in which the well-being of their population may be seriously at risk. The issues inherent in caring for the environment or the propensity to external attacks that can be received from a neighboring nation, may be the object of a probabilistic measurement at some point. In this sense, the application of computer models has allowed, within the framework of sensible and long-term policies, to include the most unsuspected variables in the calculation of the probability of an event. For example, when planning the outcome of a harvest, they are often considered in the reasoning of the odds the area to be sown, the type of seed, the number of workers, the irrigation conditions ... however, using current computers, true imponderables can be included, such as long droughts or, on the contrary, floods and floods.

In this context, the modern idea arises, widely applied by different sciences, of equating the idea of ​​probability with the concept of risk. This may seem tremendous to us, but it turns out to be a very common phenomenon of use in medicine. Thus, we know that if a person is a smoker, has high cholesterol and does not perform physical activity, they have a greater probability (that is, a greater risk) of suffering a myocardial infarction or stroke. Through the application of probability theory, we will know that it is necessary to invest a great effort in combating smoking and promoting a healthy life to reduce the rate of heart problems and avoid long-term health complications.

Thus, we see that the idea of ​​probability is part of everyday life, from the simple act of crossing a street and defining its risks, to the complex design of a trip through space.

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